Oscar Talk V: Best Director & Best Picture

If the Globes proved one thing, it was the fact that even Spielberg is vulnerable. Even though I think he will still be up for Best Picture and Best Director, something as slight as a PGA (Jan 4) snub could easily eliminate Munich for good. The sure things still are Brokeback Mountain and Good Night, and Good Luck. - although if the right-wingers take hold, it could kill BBM's chances or make it even more likely - who knows. Clooney though, is probably the Best Director Winner over Ang Lee. Has a prominant actor-turned Director ever been nominated and not won?? As far as I can think, the answer is no (and Sofia Coppola was never a big time actor first btw).

Another strong candiadte for BP is Walk the Line, although I don't think its director, James Mangold is going to be there come Oscar Nom Morn. There is - more often than not - an odd man out director - one that doesn't match up with a corrosponding BP. This year I think it's Mangold left out and Woody Allen put in. There is also the possibility of Fernando Meirselles (Constant Gardener) and/or David Cronenberg (Violence), but it will probably be Woody. Although he only has two Best Pic nods (Annie Hall and Hannah) he has been up for Director five times (add Broadway Danny Rose, Crimes & Misdemeanors and Bullets over Broadway). He is the strongest candiadte to get a nomination WITHOUT a BP nod - although we certainly cannot count Match Point out yet.

The other big film - big Big BIg BIG - film is Peter Jackson's King Kong. Although not to the level of LOTR, Kong does have the big box office behind it, and in a year that was known as a BO fiasco - this could help tremendously. There is, of course, the possibility of Crash finding its way into the Top 5, but personally I am rooting for The New World. I'm afraid this film is going to go nearly completely unnoticed in this awards season, and that would be a shame. Let's just hope Cinderella Man - with all its talk of coming back - is finally dead in the water.

Picture: Brokeback, Good Night, Munich, Walk the Line & Kong.
Director: Clooney, Lee, Spielberg, Allen & Jackson.