Oscar Talk: Best Supporting Actress

Let's talk Oscar.

Finally - after a truly long time of procrastinating - let's talk about the impact of the Golden Globes (and the critics groups) on the Oscar Race. The awardzapalooza that took place this past week (seven critics groups AND the Globes) has somewhat narrowed things down a bit - but just a bit. Let's take this category by category, shall we.

First off, Best Supporting Actress. Strangely enough this is probably the strongest category this year with about eleven actresses vying for the top five spots. And it's wide open, considering Scarlett Johansson (Match Point) is probably the only sure thing - but then again, we said that in 2003 with her Lost in Translation performance, and look what that got her - a big fat nothing on Oscar nomination morning. Actually, with her Globe nod this year, she has four Globe nominations in three years, but has yet to garner a single Oscar nod. Will this year do it for her?

Other - relatively - strong candidates are Michelle Williams for Brokeback Mountain, who despite a rather lackluster role to work with, will most likely ride the Brokeback wave to a nomination, and Gong Li, who may be the sole survivor of Memoirs of a Geisha's critical nosedive (a thing I predicted long ago). Another strong possibility is Maria Bello for A History of Violence, but there may be category confusion that ultimately seals her fate. Being campaigned as supporting, but garnering a lead nomination from the HFPA, Bello (or rather her studio) may decide to go lead, which actually may be for the best - and let's face it, Bello is lead here, not supporting.

As for the other two (or three if Bello goes lead) spots, they are pretty much up for grabs. More likely are Rachel Weisz for The Constant Gardener, Francis McDormand for North Country and Shirley Maclaine for In Her Shoes - all Globe nominees. One of these ladies may be left in the lurch unless Bello does go lead. The two actresses most hurt by their Globe snubs are Diane Keaton (Family Stone) and Uma Thurman (The Producers). Both strong contenders. Both with the wind knocked out of their sails so to speak. But then again, it is more likely to see a surprise (read: non Globe nominee) in the supporting categories than in leads - since there are ten lead actors/actresses to ultimately choose from. Another possibility - albeit a dark horse - is Catherine Keener, grabbing up a couple of crix pix (LA and Boston) but not a Globe. It's a small role without much glitz (which the academy oh so loves), but she is a former nominee, so possibilities are still there - and personally, I'm pretty confidant we will hear her name on January 30th. The final possibility is Amy Adams, whose Junebug performance has gotten raves all around and she has grabbed up three crix awards so far.

Right now, I would say the top five spots belong to Johansson, Weisz, Keener, Williams and Gong Li - with a strong chance of Maclaine sneaking in there in place of Keener or Gong Li.