Oscar Talk II: Best Actor

We've done Supporting Actress, now let's discuss Best Actor.

This is a race with three sure things, er...make that four sure things. Hoffman in Capote, Ledger in Brokeback Mountain, Phoenix in Walk the Line and Strathairn in Good Night, and Good Luck. Which leaves us with one open spot and five men who could realistically grab it.

The man of the hour right now looks to be Terrence Howard, who just grabbed a (somewhat) surprising Globe nomination and has grabbed up a few precursor "breakthrough" awards. His Hustle & Flow performance could put him in the big show. The two men that could fight him off here are Ralph Fiennes in The Constant Gardener and Jeff Daniels in The Squid & the Whale. Daniels has gotten some precursor love, but poor Ralph hasn't seen any - although his film and co-star have.

Of course we can't count out Russell Crowe. Cinderella Man seems to be down for the count (YAY - no Renee Zelwegger (sp?)), but Crowe may still sneak in on past glory alone. Then again, speaking of past glory, either Tommy Lee Jones (Three Burials) or Anthony Hopkins (Fastest Indian) could, well, probably not considering no one is going to see their films until too late, for any buzz to build. There's always the (rather slim) possibility of Cillian Murphy (Breakfast on Pluto), Viggo Mortenson (Violence) or Nathan Lane (Producers) picking up that fifth spot - but they are going to need a hell of abig push to get there. Which leaves dark horse Eric Bana in Munich. Spielberg's film was hurt with the Globe snub (although Spielberg himself was nommed) and critics reactions are all pretty lukewarm (this critic won't see it until next week), but I would loike to see this very underrated actor get his due...someday.

In the end I say: Hoffman, Phoenix, Ledger, Strathairn & Howard. Next up will be Best Supporting Actor...coming tomorrow.