Oscar Talk IV: Best Actress

There have really only been two sure things in this year's Best Actress race - Reese Witherspoon in Walk the Line and Dame Judi Dench in Mrs. Henderson Presents, but it's lovely Reese that is taking the critics awards by storm, the way Imelda Staunton did last year before she won the Osc...ooo wait, that's right, she didn't win, did she??? I guess what I'm saying is do not be decieved by early frontrunners, although I think Reese will weather any storm this year. She is at that perfectly ripe age for first time Oscar winners.

But let's not forget about Felicity Huffman in Transamerica. She changes her look and her sex (sort of) to play this part - although it may not be as dramatic as Theron changed when she won her "HIGHLY OVERRATED AND UNDESERVED" Oscar, but remeber what happened to Helen Hunt after she won an Emmy and then starred in a dramedy back in 1997...hmm.

This is where it gets a little more difficult to predict. Keira Knightly (Pride & Prejudice), Charlize Theron (North Country) and Ziyi Zhang all have good shots at the other two spots, but how many young beautiful actresses can we fit in one category - okay, a lot I suppose. But what about Joan Allen in The Upside of Anger? Early word had her in, but a Globe snub definately hurts those chances, and it may be enough for someone else to take her spot.

And then you have the dark horses. Naomi Watts in king Kong, has a shot only because I think the film is going to score a lot bigger than most give it credit for. It may not be LOTR, but it is a strong box officer in a year of slagging receipts, so it could be up for the big prize, which might allow Watts to slide in with it, and considering Witherspoon is the only other possibility from one othe BP contenders...

There is also the fifteen year old scene stealer from Terrence Malick's A New World - Q'orianka Kilcher. It may only be wishful thinking, since the film is flying so far under the radar, but what about Keisha Castle Hughes and Catalina Sandino Moreno? Good news on her behalf is the cover story on this weekend's USA Today. Laura Linney is another possible dark horse (although there may be category confusion) as is Maria Bello. Right now Bello is considered supporting, but a Globe nod for LEAD could change that - it has happened before.

Right now, I say: Witherspoon, Dame Judi, Knightly, Huffman & Allen...but here's hopin' for Q'orianka.