Sunday, January 29, 2006

Welcome to the Suck!!

As far as my predictive powers go, well, they seem to be waning as of late. Here is the lowdown:

First off, the Critics Awards.

NYFCC: 0/12 (went 7/12 last year)
LAFCA: 3/13 (went 7/14 last year)
NBR: 5/17 (went 3/15 last year)

Overall (even though I did better w/ the NBR) I went from a total of 17/41 to 8/42. That is a drop of 22% (from 41% to 19%). So far, so sucky.

We now move on to the BFCA's:

This year: 12/18 last year: 14/18

This is a drop of 11% (from 78% to 67%)

Then we have the Golden Globes:

Nomination Predix: 41/65 (last year 46/65)
Winner Predix: 6/13 (8/13 last year round)

This is a drop of 8% in the nomination pix (from 71% to 63%) and a drop of 16% on Globe Night (from 62% to 46%) or a total drop of 9% (from 69% to 60%).

And finally, we have the SAGS:

I went 4/5 both this year and last (going 7/25 in nomination predix this year - I din't predict the nominees last year).

So I suppose I kept at an even 80% on this one.

Even though my prediction rate overall last year (pre-Oscar that is) was less than steller, it is scarcely utterable this year. Once the Oscars came about, I went 68/97 (70%) in predicting the nominees and 18/24 (75%) in picking the winners (for which I took my title back as reigning Oscar Champ, after five years of losing at our annual Oscar Party). On the brighter side of things, I am steadily getting better. Down 22% with the Critics Awards in mid December. Down 11% at the BFCA's in early January. Down 9% at the Globes in mid January. And even at tonight's SAG Awards. Which means my Oscar nomination predictions should be a better average than last year (although I am predicting those unknown short subjects this time around, and I know nothing about them really). My predictions on my predictions (which I listed last night) stand at 75% victory on Tuesday Morning and 83% victory on Oscar Night (which means picking 20 out of 24 correctly - which I have never done before).

Overall prediction pecentages for last year compared to this year (excluding - obviously - the upcoming Oscar Predix) and factoring in that last year I predicted the NSOFC as well and this year I predicted the PGA, WGA & DGA and the SAG noms, without doing so last year:

Last year: 91/152 [or 60%] -- 177/273 [or 65%] if you include Oscar pix too. This year: 92/188 [or 48%]

Down 12% from last year. After the Oscars are over and done with, I'll update this OCD mess and come up with a total overall prediction rate. Calculations right now make it seem as though I would have to get at least an 86% success rate between the Oscar noms on Tuesday and the actual ceremony on March 5th - which means that if I go about my predicting rate of 75% Tuesday Morning, I will have to pull off a 23/24 Oscar Night (???) just to stay at the 65% success rate from last year. Of course the Independent Spirit Awards are coming up before the Oscars, so maybe those will push me over the edge (or just bring me crashing down).

Anyway, that's enough of that crazy shit. Remember, more Final Oscar Predix coming tonight and tomorrow. Then all the buzzy fun of Oscar Nomination Morning, repleat with an array of mind-numbing obsessive factoids and percentages. After that dies down, my own Cinematheque Award Nominations will be announced on Saturday the 4th and following that buzz I will finally get around to posting those long-awaited reviews I have been promising for so long (Match Point, Caché, L'Intrus, as well as some newer films that I'll be seeing at Walter Reade Thetre during the Film Comment Selects Festival). Until my next blog, check out things on my site, and good night, and good luck.


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