My Oscar Predictions are Final !!!

Finally, my Oscar Predictions are complete. The categories with the most trouble were Original Screenplay and Director. My though process, you ask?

Best Director:

Ang Lee and George Clooney are locks - no doubt, but who else? Common knowledge says that BP and BD rarely go 5/5, so who to drop out? I suppose James Mangold is the most likely non-nominee. That leaves Miller for Capote and Haggis for Crash. Both first time directors, but it is Haggis who has more "street cred" with his Oscar nominated screenplay last year for Million Dollar Baby, so it looks like he'll be in and Miller is out. Which means a 3/5 split. The last time that happened was 2001, so it's not out of the question, but we still have one nagging question. If Miller and Mangold are out, who the Hell is going to replace them? Spielberg is the most likely candidate, since he has gotten a lot of precurser buzz and his film, Munich, is the most probable sixth place spoiler candidate - plus Hollywood does love Spielberg. The other candidate would be David Cronenberg - another precursor buzzmeister and someone long overdue for recognition, although there is the distinct possibility that HoV will get completly snubbed tomorrow morning. But I'm going with Cronenberg as slot #5 anyway. Other possibles include Meirelles for Gardener (he did surprise in 2003 with City of God) or even Woody Allen for Match Point, but that is very doubtful.

Then we have Best Original Screenplay:

Squid, Crash and GN&GL are locked in position, leaving two empty spaces and four films to fill them. The safe bets would be Match Point (if it gets anything it will be here) and Cinderella Man (for some unknown reason people liked this script), while the dangerous bets would be Syriana (whose last minute move from Adapted to the big O could kill its chances) and The 40 Year Old Virgin (Ghost World, My Big Fat Greek Wedding & About A Boy all got nominated). What can I do? In the end I went both the safe route AND the dangerous one, picking Match Point and Syriana for the final two spots, but never count out those other two.

Anyway, that's it for tonight, for I must rest in anticipation of tomorrow morning. God, this is worst than Christmas Eve as a kid - I'm all giddy inside. I'll see you all in the morning.