The Guilds weigh in...

And the guilds have spoken (at least two of them - the other two tomorrow) and what do we gleen from these nominations??? Capote and Crash get a late-in-the-game reprive and Munich's chances begin to slip. Here are the results (my predictions can be read in the blog entry just before this one):

PGA
Brokeback Mountain
Capote
Crash
Good Night, and Good Luck.
Walk the Line

I went 3 for 5 here (picking A History of Violence and Munich instead of Capote and Crash).

and...

WGA
original screenplay
Cinderella Man
Crash
40 Year Old Virgin
Good Night, and Good Luck.
The Squid & the Whale

I went 4 for 5 (choosing Match Point over Cinderella Man)

WGA
adapted screenplay
Brokeback Mountain
Capote
A History of Violence
Constant Gardener
Syriana

Here I went 4 for 5 also (missing Syriana for Munich)

Overall, I am very very glad that Munich did so poorly (just read my review), but I still think it is about to pull a Million Dollar Baby and drive right through to a fucking Oscar. This is about the time last year when the critical darling and 7 Golden Globe nommed Sideways started to fade and Million Dollar Baby came out of nowhere. Sure, Munich is not coming out of nowhere, but critical darling and 7 Golden Globe nommed Brokeback Mountain might be getting worried at this revelation - although Million Dollar Baby did get PGA and WGA nods, so perhaps Munich is out of it - I hope.

On the good side, both Capote and Crash got much needed pushes with their nominations today, which I suppose is a good thing - I liked both films but didn't love them the way I loved Brokeback Mountain, A History of Violence and The Squid & the Whale. Another film shot down ?? Match Point ?? But I'm pretty sure Woody will get his DGA nod tomorrow (and I'm hoping Cronenberg gets his too).

The PGA is far from a perfect forecaster for the Oscars - in fact they have never gone better than 4 for 5, and usually go 3 for 5. It is the Directors Guild (announcing tomorrow) that is the best predictor - going 5 for 5 when it comes to picking Best Picture, for three years running. I suppose we will see.

Also, once the dust settles, I will be updating my Oscar Predix on the ninth, for what will probably be the final time until the day before the nominations are announced. The Globes (airing on the sixteenth) should not be a factor in the Oscar noms, since most Oscar ballots - historically speaking - have already been filled out and sent back in.